The Stage Hypothesis and the S-Curve: Some Contradictory Evidence
This paper presents the results of a study
testing the s-shaped budget curve of Nolan's stage 
model of computer development in an organization.  Research
on the data processing budgets of California 
counties fails to support the s-shaped curve or the use
of budgets as a basis for a stage model.  However, 
the results do not invalidate the concept of a stage
model.  The analysis suggests an alternative model 
of budget growth and a separation between models of budgeting
growth and growth stages in the development 
of the computer resource.
CACM April, 1977
Lucac, H. C. Jr.
Sutton, J. A.
